By Ralph L. Keeney
The traditional state of mind approximately judgements is backwards, says Ralph Keeney: humans concentration first on determining possible choices instead of on articulating values. an issue arises and folks react, putting the emphasis on mechanics and glued offerings rather than at the pursuits that supply decisionmaking its that means. during this ebook, Keeney indicates how spotting and articulating basic values can result in the id of choice possibilities and the construction of higher choices. The purpose is to be proactive and to pick extra beautiful judgements to give some thought to prior to making an attempt any ideas. Keeney describes particular approaches for articulating values by way of opting for and structuring pursuits qualitatively, and he exhibits the best way to practice those systems in quite a few situations. He then explains the right way to quantify targets utilizing uncomplicated types of values. Such worth research, Keeney demonstrates, can yield a whole variety of possible choices, therefore changing selection difficulties into possibilities. This procedure can be utilized to discover hidden ambitions, to direct the gathering of knowledge, to enhance communique, to facilitate collective decisionmaking, and to lead strategic considering. to demonstrate those makes use of, Keeney indicates how value-focused pondering works in lots of company contexts, akin to designing an built-in circuit tester and coping with a multibillion-dollar software corporation; in govt contexts, corresponding to making plans destiny NASA area missions and identifying how one can shipping nuclear waste to garage websites; and in own contexts, similar to opting for profession strikes and making clever health and wellbeing and protection judgements. An incisive, acceptable contribution to the paintings and technology of decisionmaking, Value-Focused pondering might be tremendous priceless to an individual from specialists and bosses to platforms analysts and scholars.
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Extra resources for Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking
Sample text
The focus is on easy-to-measure "hard" data rather than "soft" objectives like goodwill, quality of the product, amount to be learned, or fun. Therefore, the criteria often only indirectly indicate the fundamental consequences of alternatives. For example, sulfur dioxide emissions are measured as a proxy to indicate the environmental conse~ quences of acid rain. Most of the time spent analyzing the problem is used to estimate the impacts of the alternatives in terms of the proxy 29 30 The Framework of Value-Focused Thinking measures.
Response time might be drastically reduced if the number of fire trucks initially dispatched to an alarm were decreased-yes, decreased. 14 Thinking about Values More than one truck is needed on only four percent of all alarms. With the current strategy of sending five trucks, all the nearby trucks are often unavailable, responding elsewhere when a local fire alarm occurs. Hence, the response to that alarm must come-from much farther away, lengthening response time. For the four percent of the alarms that need more equipment, a quick initial appraisal by the crew of one truck that traveled only a short distance might actually get other vehicles to the scene sooner than with the standard five-truck response, as these vehicles too would be traveling a shorter distance.
Often the entire analysis uses this alternative as an anchor and tries to find alternatives that are incrementally better. Even dimensions of thought are anchored by those objectives felt to be sufficient for evaluating existing alternatives. The anchor plays a role similar to that in the assessment of probabilities (see Tversky and Kahneman, 1974) but the implications are potentially far worse. One's thought processes about what alternatives are possible are anchored, and so one is not creative in devising alternatives, and one may settle for an alternative considerably less desirable than others that could have been developed.