Preparing for Korean unification: scenarios & implications by Jonathan D. Pollack

By Jonathan D. Pollack

This examine examines 4 replacement situations that will bring about the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining features of every state of affairs, power symptoms that may are expecting particular results, a few attainable adaptations in paths to unification, and a few operational implications for the U.S. military less than diversified stipulations and conditions. The 4 eventualities (peaceful unification, cave in and absorption, unification via armed clash, and disequilibrium and exterior intervention) spotlight either the expanding vulnerabilities of the North Korean country and the vast uncertainties that connect to every final result and to the aptitude U.S. coverage respones.

Show description

Read or Download Preparing for Korean unification: scenarios & implications PDF

Similar research & publishing guides books

The Handbook of Creative Writing

An in depth, useful and inspirational source, this three-in-one quantity is designed as a textbook for college kids and practitioners of inventive writing in any respect degrees. In forty eight certain chapters the guide: *examines the serious theories in the back of the perform of inventive writing (Part 1) *explains the fundamentals of ways to write down a singular, script or poetry (Part 2) *explores tips to take care of the practicalities and difficulties of turning into a author (Part 3).

Land's End: A Walk in Provincetown (Crown Journeys)

During this party of 1 of America's oldest cities (incorporated in 1720), Michael Cunningham, writer of the best-selling, Pulitzer Prize–winning The Hours, brings us Provincetown, probably the most idiosyncratic and impressive cities within the usa, perched at the sandy tip on the finish of Cape Cod.

The Hidden Europe: What Eastern Europeans Can Teach Us

Francis Tapon yearned for a ecu experience, yet Western Europe appeared too tame and passe. So he traveled for three years vacationing each japanese eu kingdom all 25 of them. The Hidden Europe cleverly mixes insightful evidence with hilarious own anecdotes. it truly is profound, but gentle. Francis Tapon is a pointy observer who is helping you distinguish a Latvian from a Lithuanian, whereas no longer complicated Slovenia with Slovakia.

Additional info for Preparing for Korean unification: scenarios & implications

Example text

And ROK security planners could face under each outcome. S. S. Army, and conducted in RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy and Doctrine Program. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. S. and ROK Defense Planning 18 South Korea's Economic Crisis and Its Security Ramifications 21 Chapter Two The North Korean Conundrum 27 Pyongyang's Deepening Crisis 27 The Strategic Consequences of North Korea's Economic Decline 31 Impediments and Risks to a Reform Strategy 34 The Soft and Hard Landing Debate 39 Explaining Unification Scenarios 45 Chapter Three Scenario 1: Integration and Peaceful Unification 49 Major Characteristics 49 Page vi Potential Indicators 52 Variations 55 Chapter Four Scenario 2: Collapse and Absorption 57 Major Characteristics 59 Potential Indicators 62 Variations 64 Chapter Five Scenario 3: Unification Trough Conflict 67 Major Characteristics 67 Potential Indicators 70 Variations 72 Chapter Six Scenario 4: Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention 75 Major Characteristics 75 Potential Indicators 78 Variations 80 Chapter Seven Postunification Dynamics and Their Regional Implications 83 Assessing a Unified Korea's Interests 86 Korea's Regional Role After Unification 88 Chapter Eight Implications for the Army 93 Flexible Roles and Missions 93 New Intelligence Demands 94 Operational Requirements 94 Integration and Peaceful Unification 95 Collapse and Absorption 96 Unification Through Conflict 97 Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention 97 Page vii Figures Map: Korea and Northeast Asia xx 1.

10 The corollaries of these policies include the separation of politics from economics (thereby encouraging private enterprises to expand economic cooperation with the North, subject to government approval); enhanced contacts and visits by ROK citizens to the North; reciprocity and mutual accommodation between the two Korean governments; augmented food and humanitarian assistance to the North; and implementation of the ROK's commitments under the KEDO agreements. Despite subsequent North Korean actions that have contravened both the letter and spirit of these policies (notably, clandestine submarine operations in South Korean waters, continued ideological hostility directed against the ROK, further ballistic missile development, and evidence of a possible resumption of covert nuclear weapons development), President Kim has continued to reiterate his policies, encapsulated under what he describes as a "sunshine policy" toward the North.

Thus, despite Japan's clear-cut incentives and preferences for stabilization and gradual transition paths in the North,18 there is a demonstrable need to prepare more 17 For a forthright critique of Tokyo's previous policy (or nonpolicy) by a leading Japanese defense analyst, see Hideshi Takesada, "Scenarios for the Peninsula," By the Way, AugustSeptember 1996, pp. 1823. 18 Christopher W. Hughes, "Japanese Policy and the North Korean 'Soft Landing,'" The Pacific Review, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1998, pp.

Download PDF sample

Rated 4.21 of 5 – based on 17 votes