By CMR of Xiamen University
The study group makes the next forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s progress will stay solid and achieve 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former 12 months; although there's inflation strain as a result of international financial easing, critical inflation in China is not going to take place, and the patron rate index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the exchange surplus will reduce extra. ultimately, the percentage of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of fastened resources funding, although better according to capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.
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Additional resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013
In both scenarios, the research team assumes that the Chinese government can reduce the growth rate of government revenue by certain percentage points, and in turn, the government can transfer the corresponding decrease in government revenue to residents. By doing so, the share of resident income and consumption in GDP will increase. A slowdown in the growth of government revenue has negative effect on China’s economic growth, while an increase in the share of resident income and consumption has positive effect.
The principle of tax reform is “broad tax base but low tax rate”, by levying consumption tax in order to broaden the tax base but reducing significantly the rate of value-added tax. Second, the government could further optimize the tax structure by keeping corporate tax cuts while increasing the personal tax, which means that it should increase the proportion of direct taxes while appropriately reducing the proportion of the indirect taxes. Meanwhile, the government should pay more attention to promoting the social welfare such as free medical care, social security and public services.
Especially, such incentives would hinder the goal of promoting domestic demand or the final consumption. 2). In addition, in the above policy simulation, we only focused on the adjustment of the government revenue, did not take the government expenditure into account. If the Chinese government could further optimize its fiscal expenditure on the basis of adjustment of its revenue, such as cutting the administrative costs and making more transfer payment for the social welfare especially for the rural residents, the economic structure would be improved significantly.